Decision science

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That's the sound of a good decision in action. We're going out to the ball game, today on Engineering Works!

            We all make decisions all the time. Some, like whether to take a pitch when you're up 3-0, are harder than others. Engineers get paid to make hard decisions, and they've come up with some sophisticated mathematics to help work them out.

            It's called decision science and engineers use it all the time to understand complex decisions - like whether to take that 3-0 pitch. Decision science uses the odds that something will happen, its probability, to help decide what to do in complicated situations. Taking that pitch, for instance.

            It's one of the classic arguments in baseball. Decision science says you take the pitch. Why? Because decades of baseball math show that if the count is 3-0, your chances of getting on base are almost 8 in 10. Even if the pitch is a strike, your chances are still better than 6 in 10. But if you swing - even if you put the ball in play - your chances of getting on base drop to less than 4 in 10.

            Engineers apply the same thinking to more serious problems: whether to drill that new oil well; where to locate that new plant; how strong to make that new bridge.

            Well, our decision is made, scientifically or not. We're done for this time and we're off to the ball game. See you later.

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